Are combustion cars going away?

Not imminently, but their share of new-car sales is shrinking fast in many markets. Several major economies have set 2035 targets to end new sales of pure gasoline and diesel cars, accelerating a transition to electric and other zero-emission models, while existing combustion vehicles will remain on the road well into the 2040s and beyond. The shift is uneven globally, influenced by policy, cost, infrastructure, and consumer preferences.

What “going away” really means

“Going away” can describe either the end of new sales (the flow of vehicles entering the fleet) or the disappearance of combustion vehicles from roads (the stock already in use). Policies focus mainly on new sales, which turn over in roughly 12–15 years on average. Even with aggressive sales targets, the existing fleet takes decades to change. That means more zero-emission options at dealerships in the 2020s and 2030s, while the legacy combustion fleet persists much longer.

The policy picture: Where and when combustion sales end

Governments are using regulations and mandates to push the market toward zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). The measures vary by region, timelines, and the role allowed for hybrids, e-fuels, or biofuels. The following highlights show how policies are reshaping the new-car market.

• European Union: A 100% CO2 reduction target for new cars and vans by 2035 effectively ends new sales of fossil-fueled models EU-wide, with a pathway for vehicles running exclusively on carbon-neutral e-fuels under a separate approval framework.
• United Kingdom: A Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate requires a rising share of ZEV sales from 2024, reaching 100% by 2035 after the government moved its target from 2030 to 2035.
• United States: The Environmental Protection Agency finalized tougher greenhouse-gas standards for model years 2027–2032 that will push a substantial increase in EV and other low-emission vehicle sales; California and a coalition of states adopted rules targeting 100% ZEV light-duty sales by 2035.
• Canada: A federal ZEV standard requires at least 20% ZEV sales by 2026, 60% by 2030, and 100% by 2035, complementing provincial incentives and charging investments.
• China: Rather than an outright ban, China uses a New Energy Vehicle (NEV) credit system and industrial policy to expand EVs and plug-in hybrids; NEVs already make up a large and growing share of new sales.
• Other markets: The EU has also set stringent CO2 targets for heavy-duty vehicles and a phase-in to 100% zero-emission city buses by 2035. Many countries encourage hybrids as a bridge and expand biofuel blending, but few outside Europe and North America have firm dates to end new combustion sales.

Taken together, these policies make combustion engines progressively less competitive in key markets through the 2020s and early 2030s, while leaving room for regional variation and niche technologies.

Market momentum: What sales data and technology say

Beyond policy, adoption follows cost curves, consumer choice, and infrastructure. Recent trends point to a steady pivot toward electrification, with hybrid and plug-in models often acting as stepping stones.

• EV adoption: Globally, about one in five new cars sold in 2024 was an EV (battery-electric or plug-in hybrid), according to international energy analyses, with higher shares in China and Europe and continued growth in the U.S.
• Battery economics: Battery pack prices fell markedly over the past decade, improving EV affordability; chemistry shifts such as LFP are widening the range of lower-cost models.
• Charging build-out: Public charging networks are expanding, aided by government funding; in North America, most major automakers are adopting Tesla’s NACS charging standard, improving cross-network access.
• Hybrids’ resurgence: Conventional hybrids saw renewed demand in 2023–2024 as a lower-cost, familiar option that cuts fuel use without relying on public charging.
• ICE improvements: Automakers continue improving combustion efficiency (better transmissions, turbocharging, mild hybridization), lowering emissions and fuel costs for remaining ICE models.

The net effect is a bifurcating market: EVs and hybrids gain share rapidly where incentives and infrastructure are strong, while efficient combustion models remain prevalent where costs and charging access are challenging.

Where combustion engines are likely to persist

Even as new sales tilt electric, several segments and regions will keep combustion vehicles on the road for years. Understanding these pockets helps explain why ICE isn’t vanishing overnight.

• Used-car markets: The used fleet turns over slowly; ICE vehicles sold today will often remain in service for 15 years or more.
• Emerging economies: Limited charging infrastructure, income constraints, and fuel-subsidy regimes can slow EV uptake, keeping ICE dominant longer.
• Hard-to-electrify niches: Certain long-haul, off-road, or specialized applications may use combustion longer, potentially with low-carbon fuels.
• Motorsport and enthusiast segments: Performance and cultural factors support continued use and restoration of combustion vehicles.
• E-fuels and biofuels: Synthetic fuels and advanced biofuels may serve as drop-in or niche solutions, though supply and cost limit widespread use.

These enduring use cases mean the global fleet will remain mixed for decades, even as new sales accelerate toward zero-emission models in leading markets.

Headwinds that could slow a fast phase-out

The trajectory is upward for EVs, but not guaranteed. Several risks could moderate the pace at which combustion exits new sales.

• Affordability: EV sticker prices are falling unevenly; budget segments and trucks/SUVs remain pricey in some regions.
• Supply chains: Critical-mineral availability, processing capacity, and geopolitical tensions can affect battery costs and output.
• Charging gaps: Rural areas, multifamily housing, and highway corridors still need denser, more reliable charging.
• Policy volatility: Shifts in government priorities—such as timetable adjustments or incentive changes—can sway investment and consumer uptake.
• Automaker strategies: Profitability pressures may slow model rollouts or favor hybrids over full battery-electrics in the near term.
• Consumer concerns: Range anxiety, cold-weather performance, and resale value questions influence buying decisions.

Addressing these challenges—through infrastructure, supply-chain investment, and clear, stable policy—will determine how quickly ICE fades from new sales.

What to expect between now and 2035

Through the late 2020s, expect a growing mix of EVs and hybrids on dealer lots, more mainstream price points, and steadily improving charging access. By the early-to-mid 2030s, jurisdictions with firm standards are on track to make zero-emission the default for new cars. Globally, however, a sizable combustion fleet will still be in use, especially in markets without binding phase-out timelines. The clearest signal: the direction of travel is away from new combustion, not an immediate disappearance of the vehicles already on the road.

What this means for car buyers

If you’re deciding what to buy, consider costs, infrastructure, and local rules. The points below can help frame a practical choice.

• Ownership costs: Compare total cost of ownership (fuel, maintenance, insurance, incentives) over the years you’ll keep the car.
• Home and local charging: If you can install home charging or have reliable public options, an EV’s convenience and running costs improve.
• Policy signals: Check city restrictions, clean-air zones, and resale implications as more areas tighten rules on older ICE vehicles.
• Bridge options: Hybrids and plug-in hybrids can reduce fuel use without fully relying on public charging.
• Technology roadmap: Many new models now offer longer ranges and faster charging; charger standards are converging in North America.

Balancing your driving patterns and local infrastructure with budget and policy outlooks will lead to the most resilient choice over your ownership horizon.

What this means for fleets and businesses

Commercial operators face regulatory deadlines and cost pressures that often favor electrification first in predictable, depot-based duty cycles.

• Total cost: Evaluate TCO with real-world routes; many light-duty and urban-delivery use cases already pencil out for EVs.
• Infrastructure planning: Invest early in depot charging, load management, and utility interconnections to avoid delays.
• Incentives and compliance: Track grants, tax credits, and clean-fleet mandates to optimize timing and model selection.
• Data and pilots: Run pilots to refine charging schedules, maintenance plans, and driver training before scaling.

Staged transitions, starting where economics are strongest, reduce risk and build internal expertise ahead of compliance deadlines.

Bottom line

Combustion cars aren’t vanishing overnight—but in many leading markets, their era as the default new purchase is ending. By 2035, policies in the EU, UK, parts of North America, and beyond point to predominantly zero-emission new-car markets, while the existing combustion fleet continues to circulate for years. The global picture will remain mixed, but the trajectory is clear: fewer new combustion cars, more electric options, and a long tail of ICE vehicles persisting where economics and infrastructure dictate.

Summary

Combustion cars are not disappearing right away. Strong policies and market trends are phasing down new sales of gasoline and diesel models—often targeting 2035—while used ICE vehicles will remain common for decades. Adoption speed varies by region, infrastructure, and affordability. Expect a continued rise in EV and hybrid options, with combustion persisting in specific markets and niches until the economics and infrastructure align for a fuller transition.

Can you still drive gas cars after 2035?

Can I still drive my gasoline car after 2035? Yes. Even after 2035, gasoline cars can still be driven in California, registered with the California Department of Motor Vehicles, and sold as a used car to a new owner.

How many states are banning combustion engines?

Seventeen states have historically followed California’s regulations, but so far only Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington have announced they’ll enforce the Advanced Clean Cars II rule and prohibit the sale of new gasoline-powered …

Will combustion engines be phased out?

While the US has not yet joined the many countries setting phaseout date, multiple states have committed to follow California’s Advanced Clean Cars II (“ACC II”) regulation to end sales of new gas cars by 2035.

Is there a future for combustion engines?

The internal-combustion engine is far from dead, and motorsports and aftermarket performance companies will play a key role in making ICE vehicles environmentally sound for decades to come.