What is the most promising biofuel?

The most promising biofuel today is the pair of drop‑in fuels—renewable diesel (HVO) and its aviation counterpart, HEFA-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—made from waste fats and oils because they cut lifecycle emissions substantially, work in existing engines and infrastructure, and are scaling fastest; over the next decade, the most scalable pathways are “advanced” lignocellulosic fuels from residues and waste, with biomethane (renewable natural gas) also compelling where it abates methane. This answer reflects current technology readiness, policy momentum, and near-term supply realities, while acknowledging no single fuel fits every sector.

How “promising” should be judged

To assess which biofuel is most promising, it helps to weigh environmental performance alongside cost, scalability, and practical deployment. Policymakers and investors increasingly align around lifecycle greenhouse-gas (GHG) cuts, land-use safeguards, and the ability to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors.

The following criteria are commonly used by regulators and analysts to compare biofuels.

• Lifecycle GHG reduction: Measured in carbon intensity (gCO₂e/MJ) with credible, standardized methods (e.g., CORSIA, LCFS).
• Scalability of feedstock: Reliance on true wastes and residues vs. dedicated crops with land-use risks.
• Drop-in compatibility: Ability to use existing engines, pipelines, and refineries without costly retrofits.
• Cost and policy support: Production economics under credits and mandates; path to unsubsidized competitiveness.
• Air-quality co-benefits: Reductions in particulates and NOx relative to fossil fuels.
• Sustainability safeguards: Certification, traceability, and avoidance of indirect land-use change (ILUC).
• System fit: Targeting sectors that are hard to electrify (aviation, shipping, heavy-duty, industrial heat).

Taken together, these criteria favor drop-in fuels from wastes now, and residue-based “advanced” fuels for longer-term scale without land conflicts.

The leading candidates in 2025

Several biofuels are vying for scale, each with strengths and limitations. The landscape differs by sector—aviation, heavy-duty road, marine, and gas networks—because engines and infrastructure vary.

Here is where the main options stand today.

• Renewable diesel (HVO/HDRD) from used cooking oil, tallow, and other wastes: True drop-in for diesel engines with 50–90% lifecycle GHG reductions depending on feedstock and methodology. It is growing quickly as refiners convert hydrotreaters and leverage existing logistics.
• HEFA-based Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): The aviation twin of HVO, certified as a jet fuel blend component. It offers substantial lifecycle cuts and is pivotal for a sector with few alternatives; supply, however, is still well under 1% of global jet fuel but rising under new mandates and tax credits.
• Biomethane/Renewable Natural Gas (RNG): Produced from landfill gas, wastewater, and manure. When it prevents methane emissions, lifecycle scores can be very low or even net-negative. It can decarbonize CNG/LNG trucks, buses, and gas grids, though benefits hinge on tight methane controls and limited feedstock.
• Cellulosic ethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ): Ethanol from agricultural residues or energy crops can be upgraded to jet fuel (ATJ). It taps large residue pools, but commercial volumes remain modest and costs are higher than HEFA today.
• Biomass-to-Liquids (BtL) via gasification and Fischer–Tropsch: Produces drop-in diesel/jet from forest residues and municipal solid waste with deep GHG cuts. Technical viability is proven, but first-of-a-kind plants face high capex and financing hurdles.
• Biodiesel (FAME): Mature and widely used in blends for road transport; not fully drop-in, with blend limits and some cold-flow constraints. Best when produced from verified wastes.
• Algae-derived fuels: Long-term potential with high yields and minimal land use, but costs remain prohibitive; not yet competitive at scale.

In short, HVO and HEFA-SAF lead on readiness and deployment, while cellulosic and BtL pathways are the most credible routes to scale beyond today’s limited waste-lipid pool.

Why HEFA-SAF and Renewable Diesel are ahead today

They are “drop-in” hydrocarbons compatible with existing engines, storage, pipelines, and blending systems. This avoids new infrastructure costs and accelerates uptake. Policy tailwinds are strong: aviation SAF mandates are ramping in Europe, emissions-based tax credits in the United States reward low-carbon intensity, and low-carbon fuel standards in several jurisdictions create durable demand. Numerous refineries have been converted or co-processing biofeedstocks, enabling faster capacity growth than other biofuel routes.

The feedstock ceiling

The main constraint is the finite supply of waste fats and oils (used cooking oil, animal tallow, certain residues). As more plants chase the same feedstocks, prices rise and sustainability scrutiny intensifies—especially concerning palm-derived inputs and potential indirect land-use change. Robust certification, traceability, and diversified feedstock portfolios are essential to keep genuine climate performance high.

The next wave: lignocellulosic and waste-based fuels

To move from niche to material volumes without land-use trade-offs, the sector must unlock residues: agricultural straw and stalks, forest thinnings, and sorted municipal solid waste. These can be converted into drop-in fuels through gasification–Fischer–Tropsch, pyrolysis plus upgrading, or via cellulosic sugars to ethanol and then ATJ for aviation.

The following attributes explain why these pathways are poised for growth despite higher complexity.

• Large, underused feedstock pools that do not compete directly with food.
• Deep lifecycle GHG cuts, with potential to become net-negative when paired with carbon capture or when preventing open burning of residues.
• Drop-in molecules suitable for aviation and heavy-duty uses where electrification is hardest.
• Alignment with waste-management goals and wildfire mitigation in some regions.

The near-term challenge is cost and project finance for first commercial plants; policy certainty, offtake contracts, and standardized accounting will determine pace.

Sector-by-sector verdict

No single biofuel dominates every use case; the best choice depends on engines, duty cycles, and infrastructure. The breakdown below reflects current readiness and scaling prospects.

1. Aviation: HEFA-SAF now (fastest to scale, certified), with cellulosic ATJ and BtL critical for volume growth and sustainability as mandates rise.
2. Heavy-duty road and off-road: Renewable diesel (HVO) delivers immediate, drop-in decarbonization; RNG is attractive where it captures methane effectively and fueling logistics fit.
3. Shipping: Biomethane (as bio-LNG) and biomethanol from wastes are gaining traction where engines and bunkering support them; advanced bio-oils upgraded to marine fuels could play a role as supply expands.
4. Gas networks and heat: RNG provides near-term decarbonization for pipelines and industrial heat, but supply is limited; prioritize high-impact methane abatement sources.

This sectoral view underscores why different “most promising” answers coexist—and why aviation and heavy-duty freight lean toward drop-in hydrocarbons.

Risks, constraints, and how to spot greenwash

Ensuring real climate benefits requires rigorous accounting and verification. Buyers and policymakers should watch for common pitfalls.

• Feedstock integrity: Avoid reliance on materials linked to deforestation or land conversion; insist on third-party certification and traceability.
• Double counting and book-and-claim misuse: Ensure credits and physical volumes align under program rules.
• Lifecycle boundaries: Use standardized methodologies (e.g., CORSIA, LCFS) that include methane leakage and indirect effects where applicable.
• Methane management for RNG: Benefits erode without tight capture, monitoring, and low leakage across collection and distribution.
• Local air quality and engine limits: Validate OEM approvals, blending limits, and emissions performance in real-world duty cycles.

Clear standards, transparent data, and independent audits are the best safeguards against overstated benefits.

What to watch, 2025–2030

Policy, technology scale-up, and feedstock markets will determine winners. The following developments will be especially consequential.

• SAF mandates tightening in Europe and emerging in other regions, alongside emissions-based tax credits in the United States that reward the lowest-carbon pathways.
• First commercial cellulosic SAF and BtL plants reaching final investment decision and proving consistent operations.
• Updates to low-carbon fuel standards and aviation sustainability frameworks that refine lifecycle accounting and certification.
• Methane regulations and monitoring that raise the bar for RNG integrity and climate performance.
• Broader OEM approvals for HVO/SAF and expanded airport, port, and truck-stop logistics for alternative fuels.

If these trends hold, HEFA-SAF and HVO will continue leading near-term decarbonization, while residue-based fuels scale to meet tightening climate goals.

Bottom line

Today’s most promising biofuels are renewable diesel (HVO) and HEFA-SAF from verified waste lipids: they deliver large, immediate cuts in hard-to-electrify sectors and are scaling fastest. To achieve meaningful volumes without land-use pressure, the next wave must come from lignocellulosic and waste-based pathways, with RNG valuable where it verifiably mitigates methane. Choose fuels with robust certification, proven engine compatibility, and credible lifecycle accounting.

Summary

Most promising now: drop-in HVO and HEFA-SAF from waste fats/oils. Most scalable next: advanced cellulosic fuels from residues and waste, plus high-integrity RNG for methane abatement. The right choice is sector-specific, and the decisive factors are lifecycle GHG cuts, feedstock sustainability, and real-world deployability under evolving policies.

What is the highest yielding biodiesel crop?

Table of biodiesel crop yields

Crop	kg oil/ha/yr	litres oil/ha
oil palm	5000	5950
Copaifera langsdorffii	3670	4000
Millettia pinnata	9000	5612
algae (open pond)	80000	95000

What are the two most important biofuels?

The two most common types of biofuels in use today are ethanol and biodiesel, both of which represent the first generation of biofuel technology. The Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is collaborating with industry to develop next-generation biofuels made from wastes, cellulosic biomass, and algae-based resources.

What is the most promising alternative fuel?

Hydrogen
Hydrogen. Hydrogen is a potentially emissions-free alternative fuel that can be produced from renewable resources for use in fuel cell electric vehicles.

What is the most promising recent advancement in the use of biofuels?

1. Algae to Oils: A Green Option Reshaping Energy Policies. The promise of algae-based biofuels is as vast as the open oceans. Growing this feedstock is possible in a multitude of environments—ranging from nutrient-rich to wastewater streams.