What Is the Next Future Fuel?

The next “fuel” is not a single molecule but a portfolio: renewable electricity as the primary energy carrier for most land transport and buildings, complemented by green hydrogen and its derivatives (ammonia, methanol, and e-kerosene) plus sustainable aviation fuel for sectors that are hardest to electrify. In practice, batteries will dominate road transport; hydrogen-derived fuels and advanced biofuels will serve aviation, shipping, and heavy industry; and low-carbon power (renewables and, in some regions, nuclear) will underpin all of it.

The Big Picture: From Molecules to Electrons—and Back Again

A pivotal shift is underway from combustion of fossil molecules to direct use of electrons. Whenever possible, electrification is more efficient, cheaper, and easier to decarbonize via wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear. But some energy uses—flying long distances, moving heavy ships, making steel and cement—require high energy density fuels or very high-temperature heat. There, green hydrogen and carbon-neutral synthetic fuels step in, enabling a circular, low-carbon system that blends electrons with new, cleaner molecules.

Sector-by-Sector Outlook

Road Transport

Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are now the default trajectory for light-duty transport, driven by falling battery costs, fast-growing charging networks, and superior efficiency. For heavy trucks, batteries are expanding into short- and medium-haul routes; hydrogen fuel cells are being piloted for long-haul and in regions with abundant low-cost hydrogen. Synthetic e-fuels may appear in niche legacy fleets but are unlikely to compete on cost or efficiency for mass road use.

Aviation

Through the 2030s, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—especially from waste lipids and increasingly from advanced biomass—will be the main path to cut emissions because it drops into today’s aircraft and fuel systems. Power-to-liquids (e-kerosene made with green hydrogen and captured CO2) will scale later as renewable power, electrolyzers, and carbon capture grow. Fully electric and hydrogen aircraft will emerge first in short-range and regional markets.

Shipping

Methanol is gaining early ground due to easier handling and ship engine availability; major carriers have ordered dual-fuel methanol vessels. Ammonia is a strong contender for deep-sea routes because it contains hydrogen without carbon, but it requires new engines, careful NOx control, and rigorous safety protocols. LNG remains a transitional option but faces methane-slip concerns. The long-term winners will be green methanol and green ammonia produced from renewable electricity and green hydrogen.

Heavy Industry

Green hydrogen will replace coal and natural gas in ironmaking via direct reduced iron (DRI), provide high-temperature heat where electric furnaces are impractical, and supply feedstock for chemicals. Early commercial hydrogen steel projects are operating in Europe, with larger deployments planned as hydrogen supply expands and costs fall. Electrification remains the first choice where feasible; hydrogen fills the hard-to-electrify gaps.

Power Generation and Storage

Wind, solar, and storage are the backbone of new power systems. Batteries (lithium-iron-phosphate and emerging sodium-ion) address short-duration storage; pumped hydro and grid enhancements improve flexibility. Hydrogen and ammonia may serve as seasonal storage or back-up generation in select markets. Nuclear—conventional and, where viable, small modular reactors—can provide firm low-carbon power and produce “pink” hydrogen.

The Leading Contenders

The following energy carriers and fuels are best positioned to supply the next decades of demand, each addressing distinct needs and constraints.

• Renewable electricity: The primary “fuel” for buildings, light-duty vehicles, and an increasing share of industry via direct electrification.
• Green hydrogen (H2): An energy carrier for steel, chemicals, long-haul transport pilots, and seasonal power storage; produced via electrolysis powered by low-carbon electricity.
• Ammonia (NH3): A hydrogen carrier and potential marine fuel; zero carbon at point of use but requires careful NOx control and safety management.
• Methanol (CH3OH): A practical marine fuel and chemical feedstock; can be made from green hydrogen plus captured CO2 (e-methanol) or from biomass (bio-methanol).
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Near-term aviation solution from waste oils and advanced biomass; e-kerosene scales later as green hydrogen and CO2 supply grow.
• Advanced biofuels: Targeted use where sustainability is strong (waste residues) and alternatives are limited; constrained by land and feedstock availability.
• Synthetic methane: Drop-in use for existing gas networks and turbines; depends on green hydrogen and captured CO2; lifecycle benefits hinge on methane leakage control.
• Nuclear-derived fuels: “Pink” hydrogen from nuclear power offers 24/7 low-carbon supply where nuclear fleets exist or expand.
• Advanced batteries: LFP as cost leader; sodium-ion emerging for low-cost, short-range and stationary storage; solid-state remains a mid-to-late decade prospect.

Together, this portfolio optimizes for efficiency and practicality: electrify first, then deploy hydrogen and sustainable molecules where electrons alone cannot do the job.

What Will Decide the Winner(s)?

The transition’s pace and mix will reflect a few decisive factors that shape costs, feasibility, and climate impact.

• Delivered cost: Battery packs have trended toward roughly the low-$100s per kWh in 2024; green hydrogen costs are falling but remain several dollars per kilogram in most markets.
• Infrastructure readiness: Charging networks scale faster than new hydrogen pipelines and bunkering; methanol-ready ships exist today, ammonia systems are maturing.
• Lifecycle emissions: True climate benefit depends on upstream electricity mix, methane leakage, nitrous oxides, and land-use impacts.
• Resource intensity: Land, water, and critical minerals (lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earths) must be managed with recycling and alternative chemistries.
• Policy and standards: Credits and mandates—such as clean hydrogen incentives and SAF blending mandates—bridge cost gaps and set quality rules (e.g., hourly renewable matching for electrolysis in some jurisdictions).
• Safety and public acceptance: Ammonia toxicity, hydrogen embrittlement, and biofuel sustainability require robust regulation and transparency.
• System efficiency: Direct electrification typically beats indirect routes; synthetic fuels are reserved for use cases that justify conversion losses.

These factors vary by region, explaining why different geographies will make different near-term choices even as global trends converge.

Costs and Timelines to Watch

Key milestones over the next decade will indicate which fuels are scaling fastest and where costs are landing.

• Batteries: Continued declines in pack prices toward roughly $100/kWh as manufacturing scales and chemistries diversify (notably LFP and sodium-ion).
• Green hydrogen: Electrolyzer build-out and access to low-cost renewable power push best-case costs toward $1–2/kg in optimal regions in the 2030s; firming rules on additionality, location, and hourly matching shape eligibility for incentives.
• Aviation: SAF mandates in the EU rise through 2030 and beyond; U.S. tax credits link payouts to lifecycle carbon intensity, favoring deeper cuts and advanced pathways.
• Shipping: Rapid fleet orders of methanol-capable vessels; first commercial ammonia engines and bunkering corridors coming online with strict safety protocols.
• Industry: Hydrogen-based DRI steel projects scale from pilots to multi-million-ton capacity, contingent on dependable hydrogen supply.
• Carbon sources for e-fuels: Greater availability of biogenic CO2 and early direct air capture deployments enable synthetic kerosene and methanol at growing volumes.

While precise dates can slip, the trajectory is clear: cheaper clean electricity unlocks both direct electrification and economically viable clean molecules.

Common Misconceptions

Several widely repeated claims can skew expectations. Clarifying them helps align choices with physics and economics.

• “Hydrogen will replace gasoline for cars.” In most cases, BEVs are more efficient, cheaper to operate, and already widespread; hydrogen competes in niches like heavy-duty long-haul.
• “Ammonia is automatically zero-carbon.” Only green ammonia made from renewable hydrogen is low-carbon, and it must control NOx; blue ammonia depends on robust carbon capture and methane management.
• “Biofuels are always sustainable.” Only certain feedstocks and practices deliver strong climate and biodiversity outcomes; land-use change can erase benefits.
• “LNG is a clean marine fuel.” It lowers CO2 at the stack but methane slip can offset climate gains unless tightly managed.

Policy, certification, and measurement across full value chains are essential to turn potential gains into real-world climate benefits.

Bottom Line

The next future fuel is a mix: electrify wherever possible, then use green hydrogen and sustainable synthetic fuels where high energy density or high-temperature heat demands them. Batteries will power most road transport; SAF and, later, e-kerosene will decarbonize aviation; methanol and ammonia will fuel ships; and clean electricity—augmented by nuclear in some regions—will anchor the entire system. The “winner” is the portfolio that delivers the lowest lifecycle emissions at the lowest system cost, matched to each sector’s needs.

Summary

No single fuel replaces oil. Renewable electricity leads the transition, with batteries dominating road transport. Green hydrogen and its derivatives—ammonia, methanol, and e-kerosene—plus targeted advanced biofuels cover aviation, shipping, and heavy industry. Costs, infrastructure, and lifecycle emissions will determine the exact mix by region, but the direction is set: electrons first, clean molecules where necessary.

What will be the next fuel source?

Hydrogen
Hydrogen can also be used to power a fuel cell and produce electricity. This is the solution many consider to be one of the best longer-term energy sources for cars: it produces zero emissions and overcomes the limitations of onboard batteries.

What will replace gasoline in the future?

• Biodiesel | Diesel Vehicles.
• Electricity | Electric Vehicles.
• Ethanol | Flex Fuel Vehicles.
• Hydrogen | Fuel Cell Vehicles.
• Natural Gas | Natural Gas Vehicles.
• Propane | Propane Vehicles.
• Renewable Diesel.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel.

What is the most promising fuel of the future?

As the world seeks alternatives to fossil fuels, scientists are looking to hydrogen as a promising source of clean fuel. Unlike gasoline, which releases carbon dioxide when burned, hydrogen combustion produces only water vapor, making it a clean and environmentally friendly alternative.

What are the potential future fuels?

Future fuels include hydrogen-based options such as e-ammonia and blue ammonia, as well as biofuels like liquefied bio-methane and methanol. Why is e-ammonia significant? E-ammonia is considered one of the most scalable fuels, with potential to supply more than a third of the global marine fuel market by 2050.