What Will Happen to Internal Combustion Engine Cars

They won’t vanish overnight: new internal combustion engine (ICE) car sales will be increasingly restricted in many major markets from 2030–2035, but existing vehicles will remain on the road for decades, with fuel still available, operating costs and policy pressures gradually rising, and outcomes varying widely by region and vehicle type.

The big picture

The future of ICE cars is a managed decline rather than an abrupt end. Governments are tightening emissions rules to meet climate and air-quality goals, automakers are shifting investment toward electrified lineups, and consumers are adopting a mix of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and conventional hybrids. Global EV sales have grown rapidly—reaching roughly one in seven new cars in 2023—while hybrids have seen a strong resurgence through 2024 as a cost-conscious bridge technology. Because the average passenger car stays on the road 12–20 years depending on market, ICE cars sold this decade will still be in service well into the 2040s and, in some places, the 2050s.

Policy and regulation: where new ICE sales are headed

Rules focus mainly on new vehicles, not the cars people already own. The direction of travel is clear—ever-tighter emissions limits with phaseout dates in several regions—though timelines and flexibility differ by jurisdiction.

• European Union: Agreed CO2 standards require new cars to be zero-emission from 2035, with a narrow exemption for vehicles running exclusively on certified e-fuels; a formal review is scheduled for 2026. The Euro 7 pollutant standard, finalized in 2024, adds brake and tire particle limits and modest tailpipe updates.
• United Kingdom: The “ZEV mandate” compels rising electric shares each year (e.g., 22% in 2024, rising to 80% by 2030), with a 2035 end date for new pure-ICE car sales after a 2023 policy shift from 2030 to 2035.
• United States (federal): The EPA’s greenhouse-gas standards for model years 2027–2032 tighten fleet-wide limits but do not ban ICE; the agency projects industry compliance pathways that could yield roughly 30%–60% EV share in 2032, alongside hybrids and more efficient ICE. Legal and political challenges remain possible.
• United States (states): California’s Advanced Clean Cars II requires 100% zero-emission new light-duty sales by 2035, allowing a limited share of PHEVs. Over a dozen other states are adopting or considering this framework.
• Canada: The Electric Vehicle Availability Standard targets 100% zero-emission new light-duty sales by 2035, with binding interim quotas.
• China: No national ICE ban; instead, a powerful mix of incentives and credit rules has driven the world’s largest EV market. The “NEV” policy regime sets aggressive manufacturer targets and has already surpassed earlier 2025 milestones.
• Japan: Aims for 100% “electrified” new vehicle sales by the mid-2030s, explicitly including hybrids as part of the transition.
• Cities and regions: Low-emission and zero-emission zones are expanding (for example, London’s ULEZ), and some city centers restrict older diesels or high-emitting vehicles on air-quality grounds.

Taken together, these measures steer the new-car market toward electrification on a 2030–2035 horizon in richer regions, while leaving substantial latitude for hybrids and PHEVs and allowing slower transitions in emerging markets.

What this means for current and future ICE owners

If you own—or plan to buy—an ICE car, the day-to-day implications will unfold gradually and depend on where you live and drive.

• You can keep driving: Most laws target new sales; existing vehicles can continue operating for their normal lifespans, subject to standard safety and emissions rules.
• Fuel availability: Gasoline and diesel will remain widely available for years, though station networks may consolidate and add fast-charging, especially in EV-heavy regions.
• Operating costs: Fuel and maintenance structures are stable near term; taxes, road-pricing, or congestion/ULEZ charges may rise for higher-emitting vehicles in some cities.
• Resale values: ICE residuals will likely diverge by segment and region—robust for desirable trucks/SUVs or efficient hybrids in some markets, weaker where strict ZEV quotas bite or city access tightens.
• Compliance and inspections: Expect ongoing emissions inspections where they exist; retrofit options for zero-emission zones are limited and can be costly.
• Alternative fuels: Renewable diesel and bio-blends are growing in some regions; synthetic e-fuels remain niche and expensive, useful mainly for motorsport, aviation, or specialty fleets.

For most owners, the practical effect is a slow shift in the market around them—more electrified options and policy nudges—rather than sudden restrictions on existing cars.

Timeline: how the shift is likely to unfold (2025–2040)

While exact dates vary, several milestones outline how ICE’s role is expected to evolve across the next 15 years.

1. 2025–2027: EVs and hybrids expand model choice; charging networks grow quickly in leading markets. New pollutant standards (like Euro 7) and U.S. fleet CO2 rules begin to tighten.
2. 2028–2030: Manufacturer ZEV quotas ramp in the U.K., Canada, and select U.S. states; EU 2030 CO2 targets push further electrification. ICE remains a majority of the global fleet due to slow turnover.
3. 2030–2035: Several jurisdictions phase out new pure-ICE sales; PHEVs may persist where rules allow. Emerging markets continue mixed powertrains due to affordability and infrastructure constraints.
4. 2035–2040: In regions with 2035 phaseouts, new light-duty sales are predominantly zero-emission; existing ICE vehicles keep operating but gradually shrink as a share of the fleet.

By 2040, ICE cars are expected to be a minority of active vehicles in many wealthy markets, though still significant globally given the long service life of cars and regional economic differences.

Technology and industry response

Carmakers are hedging: accelerating EVs where demand and infrastructure support it, while leaning on hybrids and improving ICE efficiency to meet interim rules and price points.

• Hybrids’ comeback: Strong 2023–2024 sales reflect cost, range confidence, and regulatory credit value; they ease compliance without full charging dependence.
• Plug-in hybrids: Useful as a bridge where drivers can charge at home; policy caps and real-world usage scrutiny influence their long-term role.
• E-fuels and biofuels: Pursued for hard-to-electrify niches; current costs and limited supply constrain mass-market use for cars.
• Platform strategies: Many brands are cutting new ICE R&D, consolidating engine families, or exiting small ICE segments in Europe to focus on scalable EV architectures.
• Charging build-out: Utilities, retailers, and oil majors are investing in fast charging; reliability and uptime are improving but remain a focus area.

Expect a diversified portfolio through the 2020s—more EVs, many hybrids, and fewer brand-new ICE designs—followed by sharper ICE declines after regulatory phaseout dates kick in.

Market variability: not one global outcome

Where you live and what you drive will shape the experience more than any single global rule.

• Urban vs. rural: City drivers face more zone-based restrictions and incentives for zero-emission models; rural and long-distance users may favor hybrids or PHEVs longer.
• Emerging markets: Slower policy timetables and price sensitivity extend ICE lifespans; two- and three-wheelers are electrifying faster in parts of Asia.
• Commercial vehicles: Light vans electrify earlier on depot charging; heavy-duty transitions vary by route and payload, with growing attention to hydrogen and battery trucks.
• Enthusiast and classic cars: Likely to persist under exemptions or limited-use registrations; fuel availability remains but may be costlier.

The result is a patchwork: rapid electrification in some corridors, hybrid-heavy mixes elsewhere, and durable ICE use where economics or infrastructure demand it.

Risks and uncertainties

Several factors could accelerate or slow the ICE transition from what policies currently imply.

• Politics and litigation: Elections, court rulings, or regulatory reviews (for example, the EU’s 2026 review) could alter targets or timelines.
• Battery supply chains: Mineral prices, processing capacity, and recycling scale affect EV costs and availability.
• Charging and grids: Deployment speed, reliability, and tariff design influence consumer adoption.
• Macroeconomics and oil prices: Recessions or fuel-price swings can shift buyer preferences between EVs, hybrids, and ICE.
• Technology breakthroughs: Better batteries, faster charging, or cheaper power electronics could accelerate ICE displacement; conversely, slower cost declines would extend ICE relevance.

While the direction of travel is consistent, these variables will determine how smooth—and how fast—the road away from ICE becomes.

How to decide your next car

Choosing between ICE, hybrid, PHEV, and BEV depends on your driving patterns, local rules, and budget.

• Daily use and range: Long commutes with no home charging favor hybrids; reliable home charging and predictable routes favor BEVs.
• Total cost of ownership: Compare fuel, electricity rates, maintenance, incentives, and expected resale for your market.
• Local policy: Check city access rules, congestion/ULEZ charges, and any scheduled phaseouts for new sales.
• Resale horizon: If you sell within 3–5 years in a strict-regulation region, consider how policy milestones could affect residuals.

Match the powertrain to your real-world needs today, while keeping an eye on mid-2030s policy gates in your area.

Bottom line

Internal combustion cars are entering a long sunset. New ICE sales will face tightening limits from 2030–2035 in many advanced economies, but existing vehicles will remain common on roads for decades. Fuel will still be available, though policy costs and access rules may gradually rise. The pace and experience of the shift will vary widely by region, with hybrids playing a significant transitional role and electrics taking an ever-larger share of new sales.

Summary

ICE cars are not disappearing soon: policy-driven phaseouts primarily target new sales around 2030–2035 in several markets, while today’s cars keep operating for their natural lifespans. Expect a steady rise in EVs and hybrids, continued (but evolving) fuel access, and region-specific rules that shape costs and convenience. The transition is set, but its speed and texture will hinge on politics, technology, infrastructure, and consumer economics.

What will replace the internal combustion engine?

Alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICEs) primarily include battery-electric vehicles that use electricity stored in batteries, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that use hydrogen to generate electricity. Other alternatives, often focused on reducing emissions or leveraging existing infrastructure, include hybrid vehicles (combining electric and ICE power), biofuels and synthetic fuels for existing ICEs, and some more experimental or niche technologies like gas turbines, Stirling engines, and those using liquid nitrogen or compressed air. 
Electric Powertrains 

• Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs): Opens in new tabThese vehicles run entirely on electricity, with power stored in a large battery pack. They are a leading alternative for light-duty vehicles, though the charging infrastructure is still a developing factor. 
• Hybrid Vehicles: Opens in new tabThese combine an internal combustion engine with an electric motor and battery. They offer improved fuel economy and a reduced carbon footprint by utilizing both power sources. 

Hydrogen-Based Technologies

• Hydrogen Fuel Cells: Opens in new tabFuel cells convert hydrogen into electricity to power a vehicle, with water as the primary byproduct. 
• Hydrogen Combustion Engines: Opens in new tabHydrogen can also be used as a fuel in traditional combustion engines, but this technology is different from fuel cell systems. 

Alternative Fuels for Internal Combustion Engines

• Biofuels: Opens in new tabThese include bioethanol and biodiesel, made from renewable resources like corn, sugarcane, and animal fats, which can be blended with conventional fuels. 
• Synthetic Fuels (E-fuels): Opens in new tabThese are produced using renewable energy sources combined with captured carbon dioxide, creating a carbon-neutral fuel that can be used in existing ICEs. 
• Other Fuels: Opens in new tabLiquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG), propane, and alcohols like methanol and ethanol are also used in alternative fuel vehicles. 

Other Engine Technologies

• Gas Turbines and Stirling Engines: These are types of engines that can use various fuels, including hydrogen. 
• Compressed Air or Liquid Nitrogen: These methods can also be used to power an engine by heating and expanding the air or nitrogen to drive pistons or other components. 

Is there a future for internal combustion engines?

The internal-combustion engine is far from dead, and motorsports and aftermarket performance companies will play a key role in making ICE vehicles environmentally sound for decades to come.

What will happen to gas-powered cars after 2035?

After 2035, gasoline-powered cars will still be allowed to be driven, sold as used vehicles, and registered. The ban in states like California only applies to the sale of new gas-powered cars and SUVs, not existing ones. By 2035, 100% of new cars sold in these states must be zero-emission vehicles (like fully electric or certain plug-in hybrids) or meet the new standards. 
What the Ban Means for You:

• Driving Your Existing Car: You can continue to drive and register your current gasoline vehicle, even after 2035. 
• Buying Used Cars: You can still purchase used gasoline-powered cars after 2035. 
• Buying New Cars: New gas-powered cars will no longer be available for purchase in states that have adopted the regulation. 

The Transition Timeline:

• Current Progress: States are implementing a phased approach, requiring increasing percentages of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) to be sold each year. 
• By 2035: 100% of new cars sold must be zero-emission vehicles or plug-in hybrids. 
• A gradual decline: The fleet of gasoline cars will gradually decrease as vehicles reach the end of their lifespan, which is estimated to be around 12 years on average in the U.S. 

Other Key Points:

• California Lead: Opens in new tabThe mandate originated in California with the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) regulations. 
• Other States Joining: Opens in new tabMany other states have committed to following California’s lead, meaning the ban will affect a significant portion of the U.S. market. 
• Focus on New Sales: Opens in new tabThe primary goal is to stop the sale of new gasoline-only cars, not to remove existing gas-powered vehicles from the road. 

Are internal combustion engines going away?

No, internal combustion engines (ICEs) are not disappearing entirely, but their role is diminishing as electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid technology gain prevalence, especially in developed countries. While bans on new ICE vehicle sales are in effect or planned for certain regions, many existing ICE vehicles will remain on the road for decades, supported by aftermarket repair networks and the current vehicle fleet. Moreover, ICEs will continue to be used in niche applications like motorsports, certain heavy-duty vehicles, and in regions lacking the infrastructure for widespread EV adoption. 
Why ICEs are fading:

• EV Mandates: Many countries and states have set targets to phase out the sale of new ICE vehicles, accelerating the shift to electric. 
• Environmental Concerns: Growing awareness of climate change and emissions is driving the development and adoption of zero-emission vehicles. 
• Technological Advancements: Improvements in EV battery technology, charging infrastructure, and overall efficiency make EVs a more viable mainstream alternative. 

Why ICEs will persist:

• Vast Existing Fleet: There are billions of ICE-powered vehicles on the road worldwide, and these will continue to need maintenance and fuel for many years. 
• Infrastructure Challenges: Building out the necessary charging infrastructure and electricity generation for a fully electric world is a massive global undertaking that will take decades, if not longer. 
• Specialized Applications: ICEs are well-suited for certain applications where EVs are not yet practical, such as long-haul trucking, heavy machinery, and specific off-road or adventure vehicles. 
• Motorsports and Collectibles: ICE technology will continue to be relevant in motorsports and for hobbyists and collectors who appreciate the performance and experience of internal combustion engines. 
• Hybrid Technology: Hybrid vehicles, which combine ICEs and electric power, offer a transitional solution that reduces emissions while addressing range anxiety and infrastructure limitations.