What Will Replace Gasoline?

There isn’t a single successor. For most passenger vehicles, electricity delivered to battery-powered cars is set to replace gasoline over the next two decades; hydrogen will serve select heavy-duty and long-range niches; and low-carbon liquid fuels—biofuels, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and synthetics (“e‑fuels”)—will power aircraft, ships, and the legacy fleet where batteries aren’t practical. The transition is already underway, with electric vehicles rapidly gaining market share, policy mandates tightening, and new fueling infrastructures being built.

The front-runners in the post-gasoline era

The following technologies are leading contenders to displace gasoline, each with strengths tied to specific use-cases, infrastructure realities, and policy support.

• Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs): The most efficient pathway from energy source to wheels, typically 3–4 times more efficient than combustion. Global EV sales surpassed 14 million in 2023—about 18% of new cars—with China above one-third of new sales and Europe roughly a fifth. Costs continue to fall as lithium-ion pack prices averaged about $139/kWh in 2023 and supply chains scale. Charging networks are expanding, with North American automakers adopting the Tesla-developed NACS standard and high-power charging rolling out for both light and heavy vehicles.
• Hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs): Offer quick refueling and long range with potential in long-haul trucking, buses, and some industrial or cold-climate duty cycles. The challenge remains expensive green hydrogen, limited fueling stations (several retail stations in California closed in 2024), and round-trip efficiency losses compared to batteries.
• Low-carbon liquid fuels: Bioethanol blends (E10–E85), biodiesel, renewable diesel (HVO), and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) reduce lifecycle emissions and can often be used in existing engines and infrastructure. Synthetic “e‑fuels” made from captured CO₂ and green hydrogen can be drop-in, but are currently costly and energy intensive. These fuels are crucial for aviation, parts of shipping, heavy off-road, and the long tail of legacy cars.

Taken together, these options suggest a diversified future: electricity dominates light-duty road transport, hydrogen focuses on demanding routes and loads, and low-carbon liquids sustain sectors where high energy density and drop-in compatibility are essential.

What replaces gasoline, by segment

Different transportation segments have distinct energy requirements and infrastructure constraints. Here’s how the transition is unfolding across key categories.

• Passenger cars and SUVs: BEVs are the primary replacement in China and Europe this decade, with the U.S. following behind. Plug-in hybrids remain a bridge but still use gasoline; policy and charging access will determine how quickly fully electric options take over.
• Two- and three-wheelers: Rapid electrification is already the norm in China and accelerating in India and Southeast Asia, displacing gasoline at scale in urban mobility.
• Buses and urban delivery: Depot-charged battery-electric models are becoming standard in many cities; hydrogen appears in select long-range or extreme-climate operations.
• Long-haul trucking: Batteries plus megawatt charging (MCS) are emerging for major corridors; hydrogen fuel cells may serve routes where weight, refueling speed, or duty cycles favor hydrogen.
• Aviation: No near-term battery substitute for long-haul. SAF—made from waste oils, biomass, or synthesized from green hydrogen and CO₂—will replace conventional jet fuel over time. Hybrid-electric and hydrogen aircraft may appear on shorter routes in the 2030s, pending certification and infrastructure.
• Shipping: Batteries for short-sea and ferries; methanol and, increasingly, ammonia for deep-sea routes; LNG persists in some fleets as a transitional fuel. Efficiency measures and wind-assist technologies help cut overall consumption.
• Off-road, agriculture, and small engines: Landscaping tools and light equipment are rapidly electrifying; heavy off-road machinery will mix electrification with biofuels and, in some cases, hydrogen.

The net effect is a mosaic: electricity wherever it fits best, complemented by hydrogen and low-carbon liquids where energy density, range, or legacy constraints dominate.

Why electricity is likely to lead

Electrons beat molecules on efficiency: moving a battery-electric car from grid to wheel can deliver roughly 60–77% of input energy to motion, versus about 20–30% for gasoline internal combustion. That efficiency advantage compounds as grids add cheap solar and wind, whose levelized costs have fallen dramatically over the past decade. Operating costs are typically lower for EVs due to cheaper energy and less maintenance.

Battery technology continues to evolve. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is cutting costs for mass-market vehicles, while early sodium-ion models in China and fast-charging chemistries are expanding use-cases. Solid-state cells are targeted for late-decade pilots. Charging networks are densifying, and North America’s shift to a common NACS connector should simplify access starting with 2025 model-year rollouts, even as the market diversifies beyond any one operator.

Hydrogen’s role and constraints

Hydrogen’s promise is strongest where refueling speed and range are paramount and where batteries are weight- or downtime-constrained—long-haul trucks, some industrial vehicles, and potentially regional aviation and shipping as fuel-cell and combustion pathways mature. However, most hydrogen today is “gray” (from natural gas) with high emissions; scaling “green” hydrogen (from renewable electrolysis) is capital intensive, and delivered fuel costs remain several dollars per kilogram above long-term targets in many regions. Infrastructure is sparse, and setbacks in California’s retail H₂ network in 2024 underscored the challenge for light-duty use. Near term, expect hydrogen to concentrate in fleet depots, freight corridors, and industrial hubs aligned with ammonia, steel, and chemical production.

Low-carbon liquids: biofuels and synthetics

Liquid fuels will remain indispensable where energy density and drop-in compatibility matter, especially in aviation and for the existing fleet of combustion cars and trucks.

Biofuels such as ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel are scaling under fuel standards in the U.S. and Europe; renewable diesel has already displaced a significant share of petroleum diesel on the U.S. West Coast. Sustainable aviation fuel is moving from demonstration to mandate-driven growth: Europe’s ReFuelEU requires SAF uptake beginning in 2025 and ramping toward 70% by 2050, while the U.S. offers SAF tax credits to stimulate production.

Electrofuels (synthetic gasoline, diesel, and jet) made with captured CO₂ and green hydrogen can power existing engines with very low net emissions, but remain expensive and energy intensive. Early projects backed by automakers and energy firms are underway in Chile, the U.S., and Europe, with the most compelling near-term use in aviation and motorsports where drop-in characteristics are essential.

Policy signals shaping the transition

Government standards and incentives are accelerating the move away from gasoline. The items below highlight influential policies and their expected impacts.

• EU 2035 CO₂ standards: Effectively end sales of new gasoline and diesel cars in 2035, with a narrow exemption for certified e‑fuel use.
• U.S. rules and incentives: EPA tailpipe standards finalized in 2024 tighten fleet emissions through 2032; tax credits for EVs, charging, and SAF under the Inflation Reduction Act aim to scale supply and demand.
• California and ZEV states: Advanced Clean Cars II targets 100% zero-emission light-duty sales by 2035; heavy-duty rules push zero-emission trucks on defined timelines.
• China: New Energy Vehicle mandates, manufacturing scale, and domestic supply chains keep EV costs low and adoption high, shaping global markets.
• India: FAME incentives speed electrification of two- and three-wheelers and buses; ethanol blending is rising toward E20 to cut gasoline use.
• Aviation: EU SAF quotas start in 2025 and ratchet up; the U.S. SAF credit supports early plants, with airlines signing offtake deals to secure supply.

These measures don’t pick a single winner everywhere but collectively tilt light-duty transport toward electricity while carving durable roles for hydrogen and low-carbon liquids.

Timelines: When gasoline demand peaks

Forecasts vary by methodology and assumptions, but many major outlooks now see global oil demand plateauing before 2030, with road-transport gasoline peaking around the mid‑2020s in several markets as EVs, efficiency standards, and biofuel blending take hold. The legacy fleet ensures gasoline persists for years, but its share and absolute demand are expected to decline as new sales tilt increasingly electric and as low-carbon liquids backfill use-cases where batteries are impractical.

What to watch next

The speed and shape of gasoline’s replacement depend on cost curves, infrastructure buildout, and policy durability. The following signals will indicate how fast the transition is moving.

• Battery costs and chemistry shifts: Continued declines below the $100/kWh threshold, commercialization timelines for solid-state, and wider deployment of sodium-ion for cost-sensitive segments.
• Charging buildout and reliability: Adoption of common connectors, megawatt charging corridors for trucks, and uptime improvements across networks.
• Grid readiness: Investments in distribution upgrades, managed charging, vehicle-to-grid pilots, and renewables integration.
• Hydrogen economics: Delivered green hydrogen below $2/kg in key hubs, plus bankable demand from trucking, industry, and synthetic fuels.
• SAF and renewable diesel supply: New plants, sustainable feedstock availability, and policy support to narrow green premiums.
• E‑fuel scale and cost: Electrolyzer deployment, cheap renewable power access, and CO₂ sourcing to bring costs down for aviation and legacy fleets.
• Critical minerals and supply chains: Secure, transparent sourcing for lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite, and alternatives to reduce bottlenecks.
• Consumer adoption and resale markets: Growth of the used EV market, total cost of ownership parity, and warranty/charging confidence.

Momentum across these fronts will determine how quickly gasoline’s role contracts and which technologies capture each segment.

Summary

Gasoline won’t be replaced by a single fuel. Electricity will take the lead for cars, city buses, and local freight; hydrogen will serve select heavy-duty and long-range niches; and low-carbon liquid fuels—especially SAF—will power planes, ships, and the legacy vehicle fleet. Policy, falling technology costs, and infrastructure buildout are pushing the shift this decade, with gasoline demand expected to peak and then decline as electrification and cleaner fuels scale.

Can a car run on anything other than gas?

Biodiesel is a type of fuel made from cooking oil and grease. Any car with a diesel engine can run on it — but don’t start wringing the napkins from your last McDonald’s run into your fuel tank. In order to power the car, the oil and grease need to be converted into biodiesel through a chemical process.

What will replace gasoline in the future?

• Biodiesel | Diesel Vehicles.
• Electricity | Electric Vehicles.
• Ethanol | Flex Fuel Vehicles.
• Hydrogen | Fuel Cell Vehicles.
• Natural Gas | Natural Gas Vehicles.
• Propane | Propane Vehicles.
• Renewable Diesel.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel.

What is a good substitute for gasoline?

Gasoline alternatives include biofuels like biodiesel and ethanol, gaseous fuels such as hydrogen, natural gas, and propane, and electricity. These fuels power specialized vehicles like flex-fuel cars, fuel cell electric vehicles, natural gas trucks, and battery-electric vehicles. Other options are renewable diesel and synthetic fuels, which are either derived from organic matter or created using hydrogen and captured carbon, respectively, to be carbon-neutral.
 
Biofuels

• Biodiesel: Made from vegetable oils and animal fats, it can be used in diesel engines with little to no modification. 
• Ethanol: Produced from plants, it can be used as a blend with gasoline in flex-fuel vehicles. 
• Renewable Diesel: A biomass-derived fuel suitable for diesel engines. 

Gaseous Fuels

• Hydrogen: Powers fuel cell vehicles, which are highly efficient and emit only water. 
• Natural Gas: Available as compressed natural gas (CNG) and can be produced from organic waste as renewable natural gas. 
• Propane: Also known as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), it is a clean-burning fossil fuel and can also be produced from renewable sources. 

Electricity 

• Electric Vehicles: Powered by electricity stored in batteries, offering a zero-tailpipe-emission solution.

Other Alternatives

• Synthetic Fuels: Opens in new tabThese fuels are made by combining carbon captured from the air with hydrogen (itself sourced from water). While the combustion of these fuels releases CO2, it is theoretically carbon-neutral because the CO2 was captured from the atmosphere. 
• Advanced Diesel: Opens in new tabWhile not a complete alternative to gasoline, this option can achieve emission levels comparable to low-emission gasoline engines and offers better fuel economy, according to the Environmental & Energy Study Institute. 

What is the next fuel source for cars?

The most probable next fuel sources for cars include electricity for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), with other alternatives like biofuels, synthetic fuels, and compressed natural gas (CNG) also playing a role, especially in different sectors or for specialized applications. Electricity is currently the most widespread alternative, while hydrogen offers benefits like longer range and faster refueling, though it faces infrastructure challenges.
 
Leading Alternatives

• Electricity (BEVs): Battery-powered vehicles, charged by electricity, are a dominant alternative fuel source for cars today, offering a zero-emission driving experience. 
• Hydrogen (FCEVs): Hydrogen is a strong contender for the future, powering fuel cell electric vehicles that produce electricity to drive the car. Hydrogen cars, also known as FCEVs, have the potential to offer better driving range and quicker refueling compared to BEVs. 
  • Benefits: Hydrogen fuel cells produce only water and heat as byproducts, making them very eco-friendly. 
  • Challenges: A significant lack of hydrogen fueling infrastructure is a major hurdle to their widespread adoption. 

Other Potential Sources

• Biofuels (Biodiesel, Ethanol): Opens in new tabThese fuels are derived from plant-based sources, such as vegetable oils or algae. They are seen as a more sustainable option and can be used in existing engines. 
• Synthetic Fuels (E-fuels): Opens in new tabThese are fuels created using renewable electricity, water, and captured carbon dioxide. They can potentially fuel existing gasoline and diesel vehicles, extending their life cycle. 
• Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) / Bio-CNG: Opens in new tabNatural gas, which can be a carbon-friendly option when sourced renewably (as bio-CNG), is an available fuel with cost advantages over gasoline and diesel. 

Factors for Success
The “next” fuel source for cars depends on several factors, including cost, existing infrastructure, technological advancements, and environmental impact. While electricity is the current leader, hydrogen and other emerging fuels are likely to share the future, with the best option often determined by the specific application and needs of the driver or region.